In 2015, there has been a rush, and in the year there have been many stories in the global semiconductor industry, which are worth reviewing:
Forecast major correction
At the beginning of the year, many market analysis companies predicted that the semiconductor industry will grow by 3%-7% this year. However, by the end of the year, they have all been reduced to a flat or slightly lower. The industry is interested in exploring why? Three sentences: the terminal is weak, the dollar is strong, and China is slow.
Fabless falling
The latest forecast from market research firm IC Insights, the global chip supplier list in 2015, will be the second time in 25 years that chip maker IDM performance has outperformed fabless fabless.
According to IC Insight's December data, the total revenue of Top 10 fabless this year is expected to fall by 5% to $589.19 billion, most of which is affected by a 20% drop in Qualcomm's fabless revenue, which was 200 in 2014. Billion dollars to 16 billion dollars this year. It needs to be stated that Qualcomm's revenue consists of two parts. In addition to fabless, there is also a license fee of one-third of its revenue. IC Insights pointed out that Qualcomm's revenue plummeted, on the surface, because Samsung decided to switch to its own Exynos series processor and no longer place orders with Qualcomm, actually reflecting a trend, those system manufacturers such as Apple, Samsung, Huawei, etc. In order to enhance the differentiation of products, they have developed their own processor chips.
In addition, MediaTek, the third-ranked fabless, is expected to shrink its revenue this year by 8% to $6.504 billion. And forecast global fabless sales in 2015 will drop 5% to $79.9 billion, compared to $84.1 billion last year.
Mergers are intensifying again
According to research firm Dealogic, the scale of M&A transactions in the semiconductor industry has exceeded $120 billion from mid-December to mid-December, the highest in history. The transaction amount has reached more than four times that of the previous year.
Since 1972, the market share of the world's top ten semiconductor companies has remained at a certain level, but this year's strong alliances between large companies and similar crazy mergers and acquisitions broke this rule. In 2015, the market share of the world's top ten semiconductor companies increased by 3% from the highest point of the previous 42 years. Some people say that according to this rhythm, global semiconductor companies will be "big one" by 2020, and everyone works for a company. This statement is obviously exaggerated, but it is undeniable that this year's semiconductor companies mergers and acquisitions are unusual and may not be the end.
OEM competition is more intense
In general, 2015 is a challenging year for the industry, and there may be moderate growth. Further consolidation of customer bases based on advanced process foundry, and global OEMs may stay longer on the 16/14nm finfet process due to yield issues.
From advanced process technology, most foundry manufacturers have entered a new stage, such as Grofund, Samsung and TSMC have been able to transition from the traditional planar process, 28nm, or 20nm to the 16nm/14nm finFET process, while Intel has Started mass production by entering the 14nm second-generation finFET process. OEMs expect to start trial production at 10nm by the end of 2016.
Although the finFET process has been adopted in the industry, the planar CMOS market of advanced process technology is still quite dynamic. In fact, 28nm is still the best in many application markets. In 2015, a single 28nm node may generate $10.0B in OEM sales.
An indisputable fact, whether it is a chip maker or its foundry partner, will be prosperous as long as it can enter Apple's supply chain, because Apple's order volume is guaranteed. In the future, it is very likely that the first merger will be initiated in the advanced process foundry, while on the other hand, the foundry manufacturer will begin to merge 200mm capacity.
Global pure OEM sales may grow by less than 10% in 2015, compared to $42.1 billion last year.
The pace of advanced processes is constantly
Despite the slowdown in the growth of the global semiconductor industry, there has been no stoppage in advanced processes, but rather accelerated. Intel, Samsung and TSMC are three pillars, and the trend ahead of the world is becoming more and more prominent.
While they broke through the 16nm/14nm process, Intel, Samsung and TSMC also developed 10nm finFET processes. It is expected that the trial production of 10nm will begin at the end of 2016.
Gartner's Wang said that Samsung and TSMC are actively moving toward 10nm, but it seems that there is a different opinion between TSMC and Samsung on the prospect of 10nm. TSMC's view is that 10nm will not be a long-lived node, because 10nm is 25% faster than 16nm/14nm, which does not take much advantage. Therefore, TSMC believes that the future 7nm may be more durable. Samsung has different opinions and believes that 10nm will be more successful than 14nm.
Intel, Samsung and TSMC are all secretly making their efforts in the advanced process. Since they are based on the finFET process, they buy almost the same equipment, and they are almost at the same level, and at least there is no obvious advantage.
Applied Materials announced in this year's Semicon Taiwan that a major technological turning point in the semiconductor industry must rely on material innovation. Especially in the current generation of EUV lithography technology is not yet in place, it is expected to be on the line after 7 nanometers, at this stage must achieve the goal through material innovation and process progress. Making a process on a wafer is like “building a bridge”. After ensuring that the circuit is stable and reliable, it must be adjusted with material engineering to provide customers with differentiated products and services needed to achieve a technical turning point. 3D NAND is expected to reach a monthly capacity of 1 million pieces in 2018, an increase of 85%, and increase the number of layers from 36 to 48, bringing 50-70% market growth.
From the current process, the semiconductor industry is likely to enter 5 nanometers in advanced processes.
In addition, the FD-SOI (fully depleted SOI) process developed by Samsung and STMicroelectronics began to produce 28nm chips, and the French semiconductor company Soitec SA provided SOI substrate materials. In addition to STMicroelectronics, there are other customers entering the platoon team. According to reports, Samsung has begun to develop a FD SOI program for multiple foundry production lines in 2015, and will launch the available Physical Design Toolkit (PDK) and the IP ecosystem required by users in 2016.
Memory performance is flat
Memory is the industry's vane. As a result, the global memory industry was flat in 2015. According to TrendForce's forecast, total memory revenue may increase by only 1.8% this year.
According to IC Insight forecast data, the global memory industry's total revenue in 2015 was 83.4 billion US dollars, of which DRAM accounted for 63%, which was 52.54 billion US dollars, and Flash accounted for 35%, which was 29.2 billion US dollars, of which NAND flash memory accounted for 32%, which was 26.7 billion US dollars. And NOR flash memory accounted for 3%, for $ 2.5 billion.
In 2015, due to the sluggish demand and continued oversupply, DRAM prices showed a significant decline, especially in standard-type memories. According to the DRAMeXchange survey of the Memory Storage Division of TrendForce, in the oligopolistic market, although the supply is too large and the price continues to decline, the production of various suppliers remains disciplined and there is no obvious new capacity. Therefore, the trend of 2013 and 2014 continues this year. DRAM factories still maintain full profit.
The status of China's semiconductor industry is rising
In recent years, due to the efforts and progress of China's semiconductor industry, its changes have attracted the attention of the global industry. For example, WSTS has already listed the data of China's semiconductor industry from the original and in the Asia-Pacific region. And one of the three factors that led to the weakening of the global semiconductor industry this year is due to China's economic slowdown.
In addition, the world's top manufacturers such as Samsung, Intel and TSMC have all built in China, or built a 12-inch production line with the most advanced process, so the Chinese semiconductor industry will face a more competitive environment. The recent crazy investment in Ziguang's three consecutive investment and testing plants in Taiwan has caused great repercussions on the island.
For example, in China, sensors, analog and discrete devices are the first in the world. According to shipments, they consume 50%, 41% and 40% of the world respectively. And compared with the average selling price of global IC, ASP, China's IC ASP is 16% lower.
In addition, the focus of the global ICT industry has rapidly moved to Asia in recent years, and China's growth is particularly alarming. For example, in 2000, China accounted for 2.1% of the world's electronic component exports, and by 2013 it had reached 19.8%, accounting for more than Taiwan.
In the past ten years, the global share of electronic components export market has changed a lot. In 2000, Japan ranked first, accounting for 14.2%, and now it is the largest in China.
China's semiconductor industry is undergoing major changes. The launch of the big fund last year is an important symbol. On the surface, it seems that the big fund has solved the financing problem of the enterprise. In fact, the deeper role is to solve the problem of a rapid transition of the Chinese semiconductor industry to the market-oriented mechanism. By obtaining funds to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, and only when the competitiveness of enterprises is improved and the profitability is improved, it is possible to transition to a market-oriented mechanism. Therefore, large funds can be regarded as a bridge role in industrial development, and its ultimate goal. It is to accelerate the transition of the industry to a market-oriented mechanism by enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises.
The slowdown in China's economic growth has affected the entire semiconductor industry. If the next step is to increase the strength of China's semiconductor industry, it will adopt a price reduction strategy, which may have a greater impact on the global semiconductor industry.