On January 20, the "2015 Annual Conference of China's Electronic Information Industry - Trend Foresight and Policy Interpretation" was successfully held in Beijing. This annual meeting comprehensively analyzed the opportunities, challenges, development priorities and prospects faced by the electronic information industry in 2015, and issued "Ten Ten Ten Trends in the Development of China's Integrated Circuit Industry in 2015".
Trend 1: China's IC market will continue to lead global growth
In 2014, the scale of China's integrated circuit market exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and the growth rate was higher than that of the global market. Driven by diversified applications, the market will continue to grow at a high speed, reaching 120 billion yuan, accounting for half of the global integrated circuit market, which will grow by more than 10% year-on-year, far exceeding the global growth rate of 3%, and will continue to be the locomotive leading the growth of the global integrated circuit market. With the intensification of international market competition and the improvement of domestic policies and capital environment, the global industrial structure will be changed. Driven by strong market demand, the transfer of technology and capital will accelerate, and China's integrated circuit industry will usher in new development opportunities. It is estimated that in 2015, domestic industry sales revenue will reach 350 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 18%.
Trend 2: Chinese IC enterprises begin to step into the first echelon in the world
The strength of IC enterprises in China is constantly increasing. Haisi has been China's largest Fabless manufacturer since 2012, becoming the leader of China's integrated circuit industry, and is expected to become a global fabless Top10 in 2015. In addition, Ziguang Group acquired Exhibitions and Reddick and became a giant IC company in China after Intel acquired its shares. At the end of 2014, Changdian Technology (600584, stock bar) jointly invested by National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. and Shanghai, the core international subsidiary, to acquire Singapore's fourth largest semiconductor packaging and testing company, Sinko Jinpeng, if it can succeed. Likewise, the acquisition of Star Golden Point will undoubtedly enter the top five of the packaging industry in the world. Overall, driven by the growth of the domestic machine market, the strength of Chinese IC enterprises will continue to improve in 2015, and begin to enter the world's first echelon.
Trend 3: Industrial Fund Leads IC Industry Investment Boom
With the start of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund project, leading domestic enterprises have started acquisition and reorganization, which has led to the integration of the entire integrated circuit industry. The investment market of integrated circuits is booming gradually. At present, the total scale of the first phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund is estimated to reach 138.72 billion yuan, which will exceed 18.72 billion yuan. In view of the fund's key investment in chip manufacturing industry, and considering the planning of chip design, packaging and testing, equipment and materials industries, in order to create our own brand IDM or virtual IDM, it is expected that the next five years from 2015 will be a fund-intensive investment period, thus driving the active capital flow in the industry. With the first batch of projects of the Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund formally landed, the fund aimed at promoting the development of China's integrated circuit chip industry will pull 5 trillion yuan into the chip industry in the next 10 years.
Trend 4: China will become a global investment hotspot for 12-inch IC production line
High productivity and low cost will be the key to the competition of IC generation plants in the future. Therefore, the reduction of process linewidth and the further increase of wafer size will be the trend of IC development in the future. In 2014, China's 12-inch wafer factories accounted for 7% of the world's 12-inch wafer factories'production capacity. There are mainly 10 production lines, four of which are invested by foreign enterprises, namely Hailishi (Wuxi), Intel (Dalian) and Samsung (Xi'an). In the face of the rise of IC designers in mainland China, strong wafer OEM support is needed in 2015. Domestic Zhongxin International and Huali Microelectronics are in urgent need of expanding production capacity and building a new 12-inch wafer factory. At the same time, with the rise of the Internet of Things and wearable equipment market, such OEMs as TSMC, Unicom and Grofford will seize the Chinese market, step up the layout of production lines in China and invest in 12-inch production lines.
Trend 5: 12-inch wafers will officially realize "Made in China"
The 12-inch wafer represents the advanced level of semiconductor materials and is currently mainly monopolized by foreign enterprises. The 12-inch wafers in the domestic market are mainly imported from abroad. However, China's integrated circuit market is gradually expanding, occupying half of the world. Especially with the continuous investment of domestic integrated circuit manufacturing enterprises and large-scale construction of factories in China by international enterprises, the demand for 12-inch wafers in the domestic market will grow explosively. The market demand for 12-inch wafers is huge, and it is estimated that in 2015 it will be close to 60% of the global wafer production capacity. Driven by market demand and combined with existing R&D and manufacturing base, domestic enterprises have the power to promote 12 inch wafer production. At the same time, international enterprises are expected to invest in the construction of 12-inch wafer factories in China under the criteria of close to the market. This will ease the raw material gap to a certain extent.
Trend Six: China's IC manufacturing technology will enter the international mainstream level
At present, the international mainstream advanced manufacturing technology is 28nm technology, which occupies about 40% of the market share. After three years of research and development, Zhongxin International has accumulated a lot of technology. It has applied for a number of patented technologies and over 100 IP. It has provided manufacturing services for 28 nm polysilicon and high dielectric constant metal gate. In addition, in July 2014, Qualcomm and Zhongxin International cooperated, and in December announced the successful manufacture of 28-nm Qualcomm Luan 410 processor. It is expected that after a period of trial operation and testing, 28-nm process chip will start mass production in Zhongxin International in 2015, which indicates that China's integrated circuit manufacturing technology will enter the international mainstream level.
Trend 7: A major breakthrough will be made in the 4G "China Core"
2014 is the first year of 4G in China, and the market of 4G mobile phones is booming in the second half of the year.